Double chance betting is exactly what the name suggests: instead of picking one outcome from three possibilities, you cover two outcomes with a single bet. By combining two of the three possible match results into one wager, you increase your probability of winning while accepting lower odds. This guide covers how double chance works, when to use it, and how to identify value in this market.
What Is Double Chance Betting?
In a standard match result market (1X2), you pick from three outcomes: home win (1), draw (X), or away win (2). In the double chance market, you combine any two of these three outcomes:
The 3 Double Chance Outcomes
| Selection | Meaning | Loses If |
|---|---|---|
| 1X (Home or Draw) | Home team wins or match draws | Away team wins |
| X2 (Draw or Away) | Match draws or away team wins | Home team wins |
| 12 (Home or Away) | Either team wins (no draw) | Match ends in a draw |
Each double chance selection covers two of three outcomes. The odds will always be shorter than picking a single outcome because you have a higher probability of winning.
How Double Chance Odds Are Calculated
To understand the relationship between 1X2 odds and double chance odds, consider a match where the true probabilities are: Home Win 50%, Draw 25%, Away Win 25%. The fair double chance prices would be:
- 1X (Home or Draw): 50% + 25% = 75% probability = fair odds of 1.33
- X2 (Draw or Away): 25% + 25% = 50% probability = fair odds of 2.00
- 12 (Either team wins): 50% + 25% = 75% probability = fair odds of 1.33
In practice, bookmakers apply a margin so the actual prices will be slightly below these fair values. Even so, the double chance margin (typically 3-5%) is often lower than on the standard match result market for the same game.
Implied Probability Impact on Double Chance
When you back double chance, you are accepting lower odds in exchange for a higher probability of collecting. The key question is whether the lower odds still represent value after accounting for the genuine probability. If the bookmaker prices 1X at 1.25 (implying 80% probability) but your analysis suggests the true probability is only 68%, the 1X selection has negative expected value. Higher odds do not automatically equal bad value; lower odds do not automatically equal good value. The relationship between implied probability and true probability is what matters.
When to Use Double Chance Betting
Backing a Strong Favourite With Draw Insurance
The most common use case for 1X is backing a strong home favourite while insuring against a draw. If Manchester City are hosting a mid-table side and you believe City will win or draw but are worried about an unlikely victory for the visitors, 1X at 1.15 to 1.25 gives you comfortable coverage. The odds are short, but the risk profile is very low.
Backing a Strong Away Team Without Draw Risk
X2 is useful when you back a strong away team but recognise that the home side could hold them to a draw. Instead of taking the away win at 2.20, you take X2 at 1.55 and cover both a draw and an away win. You sacrifice some return but eliminate the draw risk entirely.
The 12 Market for Eliminating Draws
The 12 selection (either team wins, no draw) is essentially the same concept as Asian Handicap 0.0 (Level Ball). You win if either team wins and lose only in the event of a draw. This is particularly useful in leagues or fixtures where draws are statistically rare. Some attack-heavy matchups in the Bundesliga or Eredivisie produce very few draws, making 12 at 1.30 to 1.45 a sensible market.
Double Chance vs Asian Handicap 0.0
The 12 double chance market is functionally similar to an Asian Handicap Level Ball (0.0) in that both lose on a draw. However, there are two key differences. First, in Asian Handicap 0.0, a draw results in a stake refund (push), whereas in double chance 12, a draw loses the bet. Second, the odds for Asian Handicap 0.0 may be better or worse than 12 depending on the bookmaker. Always compare both markets before committing.
Realistic Odds Expectations
| Match Type | Typical 1X2 Odds | Typical Double Chance Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Heavy home favourite | H: 1.30 / D: 4.50 / A: 9.00 | 1X: 1.10, X2: 2.80, 12: 1.22 |
| Even match | H: 2.50 / D: 3.20 / A: 2.80 | 1X: 1.45, X2: 1.50, 12: 1.65 |
| Heavy away favourite | H: 7.00 / D: 4.00 / A: 1.40 | 1X: 2.60, X2: 1.12, 12: 1.20 |
As you can see, double chance odds are always shorter than the corresponding single outcome. The heavier the favourite, the more compressed the double chance price becomes. There is little point backing 1X at 1.05 on a massive favourite when the expected value is essentially zero.
Double Chance in Accumulators
Double chance accumulators are popular among bettors who want reasonable odds without extreme risk. Combining five 1X selections in leagues where home teams are dominant can produce an acca at around 2.50 to 4.00, with a high individual leg win rate of 70 to 80 percent per selection. The challenge is that even one away win in the mix loses the entire acca. Use double chance accas when you have genuine research-backed confidence in each selection, not just as a default safe option.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is double chance the same as a draw no bet?
No. Draw No Bet (DNB) means that if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned (voided). Double chance 1X or X2 means you actively WIN if the match draws, not just get your stake back. Draw No Bet is more conservative; double chance is more positive about the draw outcome being a winning result.
What is the best double chance market to back?
There is no universally best market. The choice between 1X, X2, and 12 depends entirely on the specific match and where you see value. Analyse the true probability of each outcome, compare it to the bookmaker implied probability, and back the double chance market where the gap is largest in your favour.
Can double chance bets be combined with other markets?
Yes. Double chance can be combined with goals markets (e.g., 1X and Over 1.5 Goals), BTTS, or correct score markets using a same-game parlay or separate combination bet. Combining double chance with Over 1.5 Goals (1X + Over 1.5) is a popular lower-risk combination in matches featuring strong home teams.
Does double chance work for in-play betting?
Yes. In-play double chance markets are widely available. If the score is 0-0 in the second half and you back the away team X2, you win if the match stays 0-0 or the away team scores. In-play double chance can offer interesting value when the match state shifts odds significantly but your assessment of the underlying probability has not changed.
How does double chance compare to match result betting for beginners?
Double chance is an excellent starting point for beginners because the higher hit rate makes it easier to stay profitable in the short term while you develop your betting research skills. It trades payout potential for win frequency, which is a sensible trade-off when you are still building confidence. As your analysis improves, you can shift toward standard match result bets and Asian handicap markets where the edges are potentially larger.
